Trump’s first term in office was many, many things - but it was particularly damaging for progress on sustainability. He withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, prioritised fossil fuel development through oil drilling and major pipelines and dismantled nearly 100 policies relating to clean air, water, wildlife and toxic chemicals. 

And his second term has got off to a similar start, with Trump promising the ‘green new scam will end.’ 

So with 2024 likely to be the hottest year on record, is there any hope for Trump-sceptics?

Well, yes. 

While Trump firmly believes that climate change is “a big hoax”, one of his marquee appointments is Elon Musk. Musk doesn’t just believe in climate change, it’s the entire reason for his success - Tesla was created to usher in a new era of sustainable transport while SpaceX was launched in case climate change destroys Plan A (Earth) and we need a Plan B (living on Mars). 

Musk will officially head up the new Department of Government Efficiency, but given how pivotal he was in the Trump win, when he campaigned daily alongside Trump appearing at several key rallies, his influence is likely to be felt across the board. 

And Musk’s voice on the environment won’t be a lone one as Trump has picked Robert F Kennedy as his Health Secretary. Despite his anti-vaccine stance, this is a man who spent decades as an environmental lawyer and founded a worldwide movement to protect waterways. 
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Plus, there’s the small matter of four years of Biden’s Green Agenda. So much time, (renewable) energy and effort has been put into his green plan, that there’s a powerful economic momentum behind the transition. Clean energy is a huge money maker, and even a self-proclaimed businessman like Trump can recognise the power of money and job creation, especially as much of it will be spent in Republican areas. 

One other note of hope lies with America’s allies. The Paris Agreement was robust enough to continue after Trump first took America out of it, and will likely do the same should he repeat his trick. Whatever Trump decides to do, the Paris Agreement is more important than ever - back in 2015, 194 world leaders pledged to try and prevent global temperatures rising by more than 1.5C. This year is likely to see that temperature barrier breached, making global accord vital. 
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While it sounds counterintuitive, there is a real possibility that a Trump presidency could mean less deforestation. Should America backtrack on biofuel mandates, this will have a significant impact on global commodity markets - including putting downwards pressure on soya and palm oil, two of the key feedstocks for the global biodiesel industry. While this is by no means locked in, we’ll take all the positives we can get! Of course, these trees will only be saved because of an increase in the burning of fossil fuels.

The next four years will undoubtedly be challenging, but there is hope that with the right voices and strategies, green shoots of progress can still emerge amidst the drama. Sustainability might bend under pressure, but Trump’s voice - while powerful - isn’t the only voice in sustainability. 

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